At today's price, Ferrari's stock is pricing in about 19.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next ten years — below its actual 4-year FCF growth (26.7% a year), but above its 4-year revenue growth (13.7% a year), and the comparison itself is complicated by a possibly-too-low 2021 base year.
At its current price, RACE implies ~19.0% annual FCF growth for the next 10 years, discounted at 10%.
Ferrari's actual FCF growth averaged 26.7% a year over the past 4 years — above what the price requires; its revenue growth (13.7% a year) was below it.
Required growth vs. historical growth
Required growth from the reverse DCF below. Historical figures from 20-F FY2025 (2023-2025 data) and 20-F FY2022 (2021-2022 data). 2021 was still a pandemic-recovery-depressed year for Ferrari's FCF (€546M, the lowest of the five years shown in the snapshot piece), which likely inflates the 4-year FCF CAGR shown here.
Sensitivity: what if the discount rate moves?
| WACC | Required growth |
|---|---|
| 8% | 14.1% |
| 9% | 16.6% |
| 10% (base case) | 19.0% |
| 12% | 23.3% |
Ferrari is a luxury brand that's historically been somewhat less cyclical than typical automakers, so a discount rate between a stable large-cap company's (8-9%) and a higher-growth stock's (12%) is arguably reasonable — this analysis used 10% as the base case.
What would move this number
- Using the 3-year-average FCF (€1,064M) instead of 2025's single-year figure (€1,406M) as the base raises the required growth rate from 19.0% to about 22.9% (at WACC 10%) — 2025's FCF was 32% above the 3-year average, close to but under this site's ±40% normalization threshold, so the single-year figure was used as the primary base.
- Comparing against revenue growth instead of FCF growth flips the read — FCF growth (26.7%) also captures margin expansion and improved cash conversion, not just business growth, while revenue growth (13.7%) is a purer measure of the underlying business — and by that measure, the market's ask looks more demanding than conservative.
- Shifting the historical comparison's base year from 2021 to 2022 would likely lower the 4-year FCF CAGR meaningfully, since 2021's €546M FCF was still a pandemic-depressed low point — the 26.7% figure may overstate Ferrari's "normal" growth pace.
Show your work
Inputs, sources, model assumptions, and the calculation
- Share price$413.23 — stockanalysis.com, Sept 2, 2026 close
- Shares outstanding176,982,000 — Sept 2026, cross-checked against Piero Ferrari's disclosed 10.67% stake (18,894,295 shares) in 20-F FY2025, p.127
- EUR/USD exchange rate1.1607 — xe.com
- Market cap$73.13B (€63.01B) — price × shares (calculated)
- Net debt (Group)€1,417M — 20-F FY2025, p.110, as of Dec 31, 2025
- FCF (Group, 2025)€1,406M — operating cash flow €2,349M minus capex €943M, 20-F FY2025 p.112
- FCF, 3-year average (2023-2025)€1,064M — from €848M (2023), €938M (2024), and €1,406M (2025)
- Discount rate (WACC)10% base case (8%/9%/12% tested)
- Terminal growth rate2.5% — long-run GDP-level assumption
Normalization check: 2025's FCF (€1,406M) is +32% above the 3-year average (€1,064M) — within this site's ±40% threshold, so used as-is without adjustment, though close to the boundary.
Model: free cash flow is assumed to grow at a constant annual rate g for 10 years, then at a 2.5% terminal rate thereafter, solved by bisection for the value of g that equates present value to today's enterprise value (market cap plus net debt, ≈$74.8B).
Historical CAGR check: 4-yr FCF CAGR (2021→2025) = 26.7%. 4-yr revenue CAGR (2021→2025) = 13.7%.
The fine print
- This isn't a fair-value price target — it only shows what the current price already assumes.
- Change the discount rate or the FCF base, and the answer moves substantially — see the sensitivity table above.
- Whether 19.0% growth is realistic depends on whether Ferrari can keep expanding margins at its recent pace, not just keep growing revenue — the FCF-vs-revenue comparison above points in different directions.
- A reverse DCF shows what the market currently expects — it does not say what the stock is "worth."
- Any investment decision, and its outcome, is your own responsibility.
Frequently asked questions
What growth rate does RACE's stock price assume?
At today's price, Ferrari's stock is pricing in about 19.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next ten years, at a 10% discount rate, using 2025's FCF as the base.
Is Ferrari's historical growth a fair comparison?
It's complicated. Ferrari's 4-year FCF CAGR (26.7%) sits above the market's 19.0% ask, which looks reassuring — but 2021 was still a pandemic-depressed base year, which may inflate that figure. Its 4-year revenue CAGR (13.7%), a purer measure of business growth without margin effects, is actually below the market's ask.
What share price was used for this analysis?
This analysis used $413.23, as of the Sept 2, 2026 close, with a EUR/USD rate of 1.1607.